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    Four factors or caused the price of aluminum downstream

    Author: Published:2015-05-29 Views:1140

    In the domestic and international aluminum prices from the beginning of the fall of the price of aluminum since 9, as of September 29th, the stock price of aluminum futures from the beginning of the 7% points fell to 13900 points, or 1100 or more than 15000. This 3 - August sharp rise in the price of the market to form a sharp contrast, when the Shanghai aluminum from 12600 points rose to 15000 points, an increase of 2400 points. Aluminum prices fell overwhelmed, mainly because after micro stimulus gradually ended, China's economy once again showed weak phenomenon, and aluminum demand is not busy season, and higher prices, the domestic aluminum enterprises to resume production of more, aluminum production continue to increase, aluminum prices and therefore subject to greater pressure, market outlook is still worrying.
    Weak economic performance in China
    China again in the near future to show weakness, slightly pre stimulus failed to enable continued strong economic, so that the demand for aluminum is expected to turn pale. Recent data make the market worried about China's economic prospects, 8 months of above scale industrial added value of an increase of 6.9%, 2.1% lower than in July, to its lowest level in nearly six years; 2.2 per cent year-on-year negative growth in August generating capacity; August export growth again reduce and reduce import speed etc., the investor heart cold. In fact, after the Chinese government just give some of the stimulus measures, the central bank on April 25, June 16, two consecutive directional RRR, the national development and Reform Commission in July August concentrated approved a number of railway investment project started, to stimulate economic growth. But this is only microstimulated, Chinese government rejected the massive stimulus, which makes 8 - after September economic growth again weak.
    Poor demand for aluminum performance
    Weak domestic economic impact, 9 - October aluminum demand season again poor performance. Many aluminum processing companies reflect the end of the month since the number of orders increased, the peak season as expected, but the number of orders increased significantly less than in previous years, 8. Shanghai Fubao network recently in Henan Province were a survey shows that even with an annual output of 1000 - 10000 tons of aluminum processing enterprises can only maintain the operating rate of 75%, 1000 tons of the following small enterprises is lower. Weak economic performance in the domestic industries are affected, the aluminum consumption large real estate industry is subject to falling house prices, inventory high rate of adverse effects, these affected the consumption of aluminum, season which makes it difficult to form a.
    Domestic aluminum production continues to increase
    Aluminium prices by another pressure from increasing China's aluminum production, 3 - 5 month low discontinued when, production of domestic aluminum prices and in aluminum prices rebound gradually resume production, also had a great impact. The latest data show that August domestic aluminum production reached 202.75_wan million tons of, this is the aluminum output of our country for the first time exceeded 200 million tons, compared to the same period last year increased by 8.8%, which is in the country continue to document the elimination of excess production capacity, new capacity constraints. Actually, in Northwest China over the past few years, new capacity is still being formed continuously, while the mainland 3 - 5 month shutdown, production of aluminum prices gradually resume production, aluminum production increased. According to estimates, since May, the resumption of production capacity of 500000 tons of aluminum enterprises.
    Dollar strength will suppress the price of aluminum
    The dollar index on August 19, break through nearly a year of 81.5 points since the consolidation area along the formation to break up, very strong performance, including aluminum, non-ferrous metal prices to form a huge pressure. The dollar's strength was the first of its February rapid economic recovery from the winter chill and the Fed's steady exit from the QE and the willingness to raise interest rates to get a stronger economic base.. Followed by the events in Ukraine in the United States and the European Union joint economic sanctions against Russia, but the negative impact on the European economy is far greater than the negative impact on the economy of the United States, damage the euro base, but also conducive to the strength of the dollar. Finally, since the dollar since last September has been 78.5 - 81.5 sideways oscillation, to break through technical buying also strengthen the dollar rally. The dollar is likely to rise to 89 points, will continue to form a pressure on international aluminum prices.
    In short, the price of aluminum by the Chinese economy is weak, the domestic raw aluminum, the appreciation of the dollar and other pressure. Consider the overall commodity prices of the bear market, the possibility of a period of time within the price of the downward pressure of the downward pressure.

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